Our country's primary energy structure is similar to the global average energy structure. However, my country's coal accounts for a relatively large proportion, accounting for about 57%, while the global average is only about 27%. Therefore, my country's carbon emissions per unit of GDP are higher than the global average. In this regard, it is more complicated and difficult for my country to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This has two implications.
First of all, my country's energy structure needs to be reversed, which is a relatively difficult process. We must know that my country’s current annual carbon emissions of about 10 billion tons are mainly brought about by the world’s largest energy system built in the past 40 years, and fossil energy accounts for about 85% of this energy system. Moreover, this energy system is still expanding.
Secondly, it has a direct relationship with our country which is still in the developing stage. At present, my country's per capita GDP is about 11,000 US dollars. The next step may be 20,000 US dollars or even 30,000 US dollars. Even high-quality growth still needs energy support.
Based on the current 2030 plan proposed by my country, non-fossil energy accounts for 25% of primary energy and wind power photovoltaic installed capacity is 1.2 billion. 60%. This means that the electricity structure will be about 10% cleaner than it is now.
Thermal power will also be used to meet the growth in power demand Since photovoltaic power has the greatest potential, wind power and nuclear power will also have a relatively large growth, but the room for wind power growth is greater than that of nuclear power. In the future, my country will gradually form an energy system based on renewable energy. As for thermal power, the current main point of view is that (especially abroad) China wants to withdraw from thermal power and cannot add new thermal power. In fact, the prospect of thermal power is not so pessimistic. If the growth of electricity demand in the next few years is relatively high, such as more than 2% or even more than 3%, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy may not be able to meet, therefore, thermal power is needed to guarantee it. Especially, in relatively special weather and specific seasons, thermal power may also be needed. Therefore, in the short term, thermal power still needs to be used to meet the growth of electricity demand. In the medium and long term, thermal power can also be used to buffer the instability of wind power and photovoltaics and deal with the insecurity they bring to the grid. This may be a new positioning of thermal power in my country's huge power system in the future.
Use market means to support carbon neutrality Due to climate change, we are in an increasingly unstable climate environment, with more and more extreme weather phenomena. If the proportion of wind power and photovoltaics becomes higher and higher, then we will also have an unstable energy power system. Therefore, the cost of the energy power system will increase accordingly. Through carbon trading as a market tool, the cost of fossil energy can be increased to curb its consumption, which also improves the competitiveness of clean energy. In addition, carbon trading can also guide the adjustment of industrial structure. In fact, through the reform of the electricity market, the electricity price reflects the market supply and demand and the carbon neutral cost of the energy and power system, and the carbon cost is used to push up the operating costs of high energy-consuming industries, thereby promoting energy conservation and emission reduction or transformation or exit.
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